Losing Carlos Correa hurts, its why were not projecting the Astros to win the AL pennant, but theres a real gap between Houston and its competition in the division. Needless to say, our MLB predictions arent quite as high on the Boston Red Sox. Here's what experts think. The bullpen is, well, the Phillies bullpen. Hes going to be one of the best players in MLB before long and some even think hell get MVP votes in 2022. The Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) finish the season against the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8) Saturday in Chapel Hill. ET, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. Victor Robles still flashes big potential, but has yet to make everything click. If the rookies can play up to their projections and immediately become impact talents, this could be an underrated team in 2022. 103 / 103+59 OR 103 / 162 = .636 OR 63.6%. The top of the rotation remains dominant with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and the biggest weakness the bullpen was improved with the signings of Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel. There were three last season. If I believe the Dodgers end the regular season with the most wins, I like my chances for hitting the over here. The model's outlook of the AL Central is perhaps what differs from conventional wisdom the most in its projections. TEX Texas Rangers. 1. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and World Series. Dropping $500 million on a new middle infield (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien)got plenty of attention for the Rangers An ongoing clearance sale has the Athletics expected to finish last,but Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas give Oakland a little bit of upward mobility if they don't get shipped off, too. Download data. You can do it! The 2022 MLB season is finally here. We like the Zack Greinke return and have optimism for the Royals future, but 2022 wont be great. It has been a discouraging offseason forAthletics'fans, who watched their two core Matts traded off to the Blue Jays (Chapman) and Braves (Olson), and standout arms Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt traded to the Padres and Mets, respectively. One of the more remarkable tidbits about last season was the Dodgers' total being 103.5, them hitting the over with room to spare and still not winning the NL West. MLB Playoff Predictor (MLB Season Picker) lets you pick every game of the MLB Season via a season Schedule . Luis Robert is a darkhorse MVP candidate, Jose Abreu is consistent and there is even more All-Star talent (Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson). Design and development by Jay Boice. Corey Kluber is 36. Back # WL Div GB # AL WL Pct GB # WL Div GB # Andrew Benintendi showed some bounceback potential in 2021, and Adalberto Mondesi still looks explosive when healthy. PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Bryan Reynolds was a highlight for the team in 2021 as he earned an All-Star nod, and Ke'Bryan Hayes showed potential to be the next face of the franchise. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section. The Dodgers are currently favored to take it all. Sure enough, thats exactly what they did. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. 3 (Freddy Peralta) and a potential Rookie of the year candidate (Aaron Ashby). After the NL East race came down to the wire in 2022, with the Braves edging the Mets via tiebreaker after both won 101 games, the two teams had drastically different offseasons. Below are the picks and predictions made by The Sporting News' model for how the 2022 MLB season is . Last Year's Record: 91-71 Over/Under: 92.5 The Blue Jays were just one game shy of making the postseason last year in a division that featured four teams winning more than 90 games. Not many expected the Braves to win their fourth World Series title at the beginning of the 2021 season. Maybe it's a case where I just didn't learn my lesson. The increase in the number of teams losing on purpose has left a lot more wins for the good teams to grab. Look, I know they do some sort of sorcery there, but the pitching depth is depleted and that's a rough division. KC Kansas City Royals. Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off 7. They will join Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. But neither system is buying Texas as a contender in 2023. Most of all, the Rockies will continue to flex their muscles in Coors Field, where they were 48-33 last season. MLB 2022 win totals: Predicting every team's record for the new season. This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022 MLB season. Follow the American League and National League races here from USA TODAY. The one thing missing is another quality outfielder to fill out the lineup. Now that the season is over, the parade is done, and the dust has settled it is time to start looking at the 2022 season. There has been a lot going on in the AL West since the 2021 season came to an end, and the model expects the standings to turn out about as one might expect. Jose Altuve continues to hit, and the cast around around him continues to get younger. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. section: | slug: mlb-win-totals-each-teams-2022-projection-plus-best-bets-on-over-unders-for-dodgers-cardinals-more | sport: baseball | route: article_single.us | Offensively, there is room for improvement on this team in 2022. Sign up to receive our daily Morning Lineup to stay in the know about the latest trending topics around Major League Baseball. The Chicago White Sox can start looking at designs for their 2022 AL Central champions shirts and hats. The Padres are absolutely a fringe playoff contender in the NL, but I'm not seeing them on the cusp of 90 wins. Things have frantically fallen into place since the new labor deal came together on March 10, with every team trying to jam most of its winter moves into just a few weeks. Those player stats are then merged in with their current teams to evaluate how good each team's lineups, rotation and bullpens will be in the 2022 season. However, pitching is a major concern. The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. It might sound like an easy pick after the Padres went 79-83 last season and now are going to be without Fernando Tatis, Jr. for weeks or even months. But in this new season, expectations are once again high for them. There just isnt enough talent around Reyes and Ramirez to make this a playoff-caliber lineup and that will prove costly over a full season. The speedy outfield of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson returns as the best defensive unit in baseball, and they're each expected to improve offensively. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. The defense is terrible. The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs. We felt great about New Yorks rotation trio and even liked some of the depth behind it. The Mariners may have somethingto say about that, though, making some big moves in hopes of ending baseball's longest postseason drought dating back to 2001. Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22 offseason featured a 99-day lockout that . As part of our year-round MLB coverage, well provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors. Opening Day is set for Thursday (for 14 teams, at least), and thankfully for baseball fans, we'll still have a full, 162-game season in 2022. Texans spent heavily on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, adding two All-Star hitters to the lineup. A complete list of this year's voters: . The Los Angeles Dodgers might have lost the NL West in 2021, but theres no doubt this is the best team in the division entering the 2022 season. The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. New York Mets - 94-68 (101-61 in 2022, 2nd in NLE) It's tough to predict a regression for the Mets, but we truly believe their 2023 campaign will be a bit less successful than their 2022 campaign. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Duke vs. UNC odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.. After these rivals, located just 7 miles apart, met in the . The production this season will help set the stage for the next competitive Nationals' team. Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive players in the game and his bat should look better with the talent around it. The rotation has the biggest question marks, but the signing of Zack Greinke to go along with Brady Singer, Brad Keller and Carlos Hernandez should be able to give the team quality innings. For now, with everyone healthy, this looks like a Wild Card team that doesnt reach the ALDS. You famously cannot predict baseball. The rotation might be even better in 2022 with the return of Mike Soroka to join Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton and Huascar Ynoa. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner are a promising young middle-infield combo, who should be big parts of the team's future. PECOTA is much less bullish on the Giants, giving them a winning percentage below .500 and less than a 1% chance of winning the division. Four teams won at least 100 in 2019. A starting rotation with two Cy Young candidates (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff), an All-Star No. The Minnesota Twins are an interesting case. But even with Seager gone, Turner shifted from second to shortstop and Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor will occupy second base. Instead, they missed the playoffs. I think Randal Grichuk will post huge power numbers there, too. Our 2022 MLB predictions panel. The Orioleshope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching inCedric Mullins andRyan Mountcastle. Toronto Blue Jays. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. They battled through adversity and were able to outlast the Houston Astros en route to a world series trophy. by Retrosheet. They'll hover around .500 without the season-altering winning streak this time around. So without further ado, we present to you seven bold predictions for the 2022 MLB season. ZiPS has it as a much closer race, projecting the Yankees for 89 wins and the Blue Jays for 88. Julio Rodriguez, who earned a spot on the MLB roster, can win Rookie of the year and make a significant 2022 impact. With considerable improvement expected from Ronald Acua Jr. and Ozzie Albies, ZiPS thinks Atlanta is in good shape, projecting the club for another tie with the Mets at 94 wins apiece. If this is the year, Los Angeles could be in for a rise, especially with promising young talents Jo Adell, Reid Detmers and Brandon Marsh expected to be regulars in 2022. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. New York Mets. Top 2023 Gotham Stakes predictions One shocker: Demling is high on Lugan Knight, who is tied for third in the odds, at 6-1. If the snake-bitten franchise gets full seasons from Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Noah Syndergaard, its a no-doubt playoff team. The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction. Are we really counting on Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, then? They also made big splashes by signing Rodon, Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd, who will only make this rotation stronger. As for the Rays, the Wander Franco hype is real. 2022 MLB preseason predictions: World Series, MVP and Cy Young bets we're counting on this year. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year? The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team. 2. 2022 Year to Date: 2023 Projected Rest of Season: 2023 Projected Full Season: Team G W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G G W L W% RDif RS/G All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Coming off an 81-81 campaign, San Francisco had an offseason that can best be described as OK. The Giants had grand designs to add a superstar, but they came up short in the Judge sweepstakes and walked away from a deal with Carlos Correa, reportedly due to concerns about his physical. The Cleveland Cavaliers (39-26, 26-7 home) return to Ohio on Saturday for an Eastern Conference affair with the lowly Detroit Pistons (15-48, 7-25 away) who are in the gutter of the conference standings. But there they are with an 88-74 projection from ZiPS, just three games behind the mighty Dodgers and Padres. The fourth and final 2022-23 regular-season meeting in the Battle of Florida is set for Tuesday as the Florida Panthers head to Tampa to take on the Lightning and their No.1 home offense. Today's MLB slate is very busy, and the first game is at 3:10 pm ET. The versatile Max Muncy will hit anywhere he's playing, and Justin Turner has shown no signs of aging as he heads into his age 36 season. Tyler Stephenson finishes with 20+ home runs, 80+ runs, and 80+ RBIs. The rotation looks well-rounded with three experienced starters at the top in Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Wade Miley. The Guardiansfeel like the biggest surprise in the division. As for the Washington Nationals, the greatest hitter in MLB (Juan Soto) cant fix their rotation, bullpen nor take multiple spots in the batting order. However, the starting rotation just doesnt seem good enough in a long season. Clayton Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy, but has been dominant when on the mound. Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson shined in their rookie seasons, and are expected to continue to improve, and a healthy Nick Senzel could help him live up to his top prospect billing. Despite signing Trea Turnerin free agency, neither ZiPS nor PECOTA views the Phils as a major threat to win this division. It makes them the team to beat in the NL Central, especially if Christian Yelich rebounds and Kolten Wong stays healthy. By Dom Luszczyszyn. March 4, 2023 7:30 am EDT. Projection rollouts have become a time-honored tradition in the lead up to every baseball season, and FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborskis ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA are two of the most trusted projection systems around. The Cardinals often get far too much from their starters than they should. Christian Yelich can only get better after . As for the Cubs, neither system likes their postseason chances despite the signings of Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer. Thats two huge additions, creating a lineup that should be among the NL leaders in home runs and RBI. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Even if they are the only one this time around, I like the Dodgers to keep MLB's 100-win streak going. Rather astounding. Payroll is the one thing keeping the Cleveland Guardians from putting up a great fight against Chicago. However, the Mets will still be in a prime position to compete and will likely make a big splash in the 2023 postseason. Theyll be better than the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least we can say we like the outlook for Pittsburghs future. 400. The Records are updated Live on the MLB Standings after each game finishes. Replacing set-up man Craig Kimbrel with outfielder A.J. As of now, this is the best team in the AL East. 2022 Year to Date: 2023 Projected Rest of Season: 2023 Projected Full Season: Team G . ZiPS projects the White Sox for 74 wins, closer to the Tigers (71) and Royals (70) than the Guardians (83) and Twins (80). Plus, in the NL West, the Dodgers are awesome and the Giants are coming off a 107-win season. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. This year, no one will sleep on the Mariners. The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. Carlos Rodon is gone, but Michael Kopech is waiting in the wings to take over as the No. Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. The deepest lineup in baseball got deeper when it signed Freddie Freeman to help offset the loss of Seager. Disappointment in 2021 compelled the New York Mets to spend even more money this offseason. MLB games today with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the teams vaunted pitching staff to allow 41 fewer runs than that of St. Louis. Let's dig in on the "best team" part, though. Add them together with JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura, and this is a deep lineup capable of doing plenty of damage. I do think this team is better and on the right track, but I don't think they'll have the kind of "luck" they did last season, say, in one-run games. since the new labor deal came together on March 10, and his new 11-year, $182 million contract, seemingly have to prove themselves all over again, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The key tothe Giants'success in 2021 was a standout rotation. Some major changes await the 2022 MLB season. With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season. while Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez bring the kind of veteran bats any team needs when it wants to make a leap in the . In a women's flyweight championship bout on the main card, Valentina Shevchenko takes on Alexa Grasso Saturday at UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Should-be ace Jack Flaherty has a shoulder injury. After adding closer Craig Kimbrel, the gap between Los Angeles and its NL West foes is even wider. Were seeing the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics head in opposite directions. They lost Rodn, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. AL EAST. 3. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. Even after trading Gray, the rotation looks decent with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle leading a young rotation that will feature flame-thrower Hunter Greene and control specialist Nick Lodolo. In fact, they lost their top free agent, shortstop Dansby Swanson, to the Cubs. The Phillieswere one of several teams competing near the end of the season for a wild card spot before the Cardinals went on their wild winning streak to take away that final spot. O/U wins: 91.5. Is the NL West a two- or three-team race? 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. Let's start things off with a prediction about one of my favorite players to target in fantasy baseball drafts. It will all come down to how many IL stints the Angels stars have in 2022. NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. Thats everything the Milwaukee Brewers already bring to the table. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. Tip from Dean E. Smith Center is at 6:30 p.m. 2023 Projected Standings. And I'd win the under. With Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer lined up . Last year, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal got a taste of the big leagues and showed promise, and will be expected to take it a step farther in 2022. Max Scherzer and Justin . The front end of the rotation offers some star arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale and Tanner Houck, who can match up with many of the best in the AL. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . I don't think they are bottom-feeder level (Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), though. Milwaukee finished with a DEF of 56, which was eight more runs than the next best team. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs, everyones preference between the two is understandable. Atlanta can erase some of our concerns by acquiring Matt Olson. But as you might expect, they don't agree on everything. Fans of the Yankeesare disappointed that New York wasn't able to land any major name in free agency, but that doesn't stop the model from being bullish on the Bronx Bombers' chances to make the playoffs. Heading into 2022, this division figures to be just as thrilling as the Padres continue to establish themselves as a threat in the league. New York received good news with the restrictions on unvaccinated players being lifted. However, there are reasons for why it turned out as it did. They've got a good young rotation led by Sandy Alcantara and are going to causeheadaches for the division's presumed contenders Juan Soto Extension Watch is going to be 2022's dominant storyline for the Nationals, who did sign 41-year-old DH Nelson Cruz. The rotation will get a boost from the return of Mike Clevinger and the trade acquisition of Manaea. The model's concerns for Seattle stem from its uncertain pitching depth beyond Ray and Marco Gonzales and the risk of an underperforming infield, but make no mistake, the future is bright in Seattle. MLB Baseball Standings Projections on TeamRankings.com. With Seattle, Los Angeles, and Texas each loading up on talent this offseason, will the Carlos Correa-less Astros . Pair that with the injury concerns we have for multiple starters, its enough to put this team a tier behind the Blue Jays. Its not a huge surprise that ZiPS projects the Padres and Dodgers for the same record. That is, we'll list the win total for the 2022 season from Caesars Sportsbook and pick whether the team will win more (the "over") or fewer (the "under") games. Although Jos Abreu left as a free agent to sign with the Astros in the offseason, the core of the roster that won the division title two years ago is still largely intact, making Chicago an obvious rebound candidate in 2023. Below, we look at those 2022 World Series odds; be sure to check back for our MLB picks and predictions as the season ramps up. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and . The bullpen, which was already one of the best last year, improved with the signing of Kenley Jansen to join Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. From there, the model simulates the postseason based on the outcomes of the regular season to decide who will win the World Series. College Basketball Week 17 Top 25 Predictions Note: Projected winners are listed in bold. There are question marks all over the place, as I explained in the preview. Considering the Cincinnati Reds are shopping their starting pitchers and trimming payroll, they belong in the ignore tier for the 2022 season. It does not expect full seasons out of both Trout and Ohtani, who have not in their four years together each had seasons where they both appeared in at least 120 games. FanGraphs Membership. Three got there in both 2018 and 2017. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected . The top of the MLB power rankings remains steady and it's likely to stay that way. With the new campaign comes the intrigue over how it will turn out. Can the Los Angeles Angels avoid bad fortune? The Angels are playoff contenders and the Rangers aren't. The retirement of Buster Posey will usher in the Joey Bart era behind the plate. Find the Pistons vs Cavaliers odds below. Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. Weak offense. 8,128 plate appearances. PECOTA views the Bronx Bombers as heavy favorites in the AL East, with Toronto projected for roughly nine fewer wins. There was a point in the 2021 season when it felt the Mets were going to run away with the division. Bostons bullpen isnt among the best in the American League and its starting rotation lacks quality depth, especially with Chris Sale on IL. It's a good, though not great, mix of position players. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. MLB.com. Drew Rasmussen threw 76 innings last year. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. But the top two teams in the NL are the same as last year's: the Dodgers and Giants. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. The Phillies enter the season probably, objectively, a worse team than both the Braves and Mets in the NL East. The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. The Braves, on the other hand, werent a major player in free agency. We should also mention the Phillies, who went further than both the Mets and Braves in the 2022 postseason before losing to the Astros in the World Series. It's always possible Aaron Nola gets back to ace level and Ranger Surez has all kinds of talent, possibly giving the Phillies a Big Three. Newcastle United vs Manchester City. The Line: Man City -240 / Newcastle United +550 // Total: 2.5. Toronto hasnt won a playoff game since 2016. Not only is Chicagos rotation among the best in the AL, its lineup is also outstanding. The White Sox, who play in one of the weaker divisions, are the favorite to come away with the No. Justin Verlander's return is hugefor the Astros, coming off their third World Series appearance in five years. It should be a fourth consecutive last-place season for the Pirates, who hope Ke'Bryan Hayes bounces back and prospectOneil Cruz brings some excitement. Each game is then simulated 20,000 times with park factors included in each matchup. Put yourself out there. This is not expected to be the year that the Oriolesmake a surprising surge to the playoffs and shock the baseball world, but it feels like that time is at least getting closer. Last year, the division placed three teams in the playoffs the most of any division in baseball and it expects to be right back in that same position next year. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022. Sign In. And yet, they won 90 games last season and I'm going under 84.5 this year. Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. by Handedness. With the exception of a 107-win season from the Giants in 2021, the Dodgers have owned the NL West for the past decade. (As a reminder, Emmanuel Clase did it in 2022 . The moves bythe Marlinsmight not have been as splashy as the Mets or Phillies, but don't sleep on the additions they made this offseason. March 30, 2022. The rotation lost Robbie Ray but added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West, just not this year. The offense added Starling Marte and Mark Canha to a lineup that was already strong with Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso in the infield and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. Unfortunately, the Jacob deGrom injury is a massive blow. A young Tigers team will take another step forward . This is an admittedly risky venture. It's Cleveland vs. Minnesota for the AL Central title. Derek Jeter left the Miami Marlins for a reason, he doesnt believe this team is all-in on winnings. Well give credit to the Chicago Cubs for not tearing everything down and beginning a total rebuild. Are the Braves even with the Mets, or way behind? The NL Central hasn't had a repeat champion since the Cubs in 2016-17, and PECOTA expects that trend to continue in 2023, giving the Brewers a two-game edge over the Cardinals. The model narrowly projects there to be three teams in the NL East reach the playoffs, with the Mets and Phillies earning wild cards to join the division-winning Padres. Even over 162 games, surprises abound. The reason the model likes the Cardinals over Milwaukee comes from the lack of trust in the Brewers' lineup, but if Willy Adames can repeat and Christian Yelich can bounce back somewhere closer to his 2019 levels, it could have just enough to support Milwaukee's tremendous pitching staff. The Fernando Tats Jr. injury creates a bigger separation from the Dodgers in the projected MLB standings, but hell be back by July. 1 overall spot in the AL. But we're making a call to the bullpen and asking five MLB.com writers to give it their best shot. Edwin Diaz was a dominant closer in 2021, and figures again to be among the best relievers in 2022. MLB is back, but will fans be after ugly offseason? TheBrewers Way? In this space below, we'll grab some totals picks.
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